Reform UK takes lead in new Senedd election poll

A new poll by More In Common ahead of May’s Senedd election has placed Reform UK firmly in the lead – seven points clear of Plaid Cymru and 11 ahead of Labour.

The survey puts Reform on 31%, Plaid Cymru on 24%, Labour on 20%, the Conservatives on 13%, the Liberal Democrats on 6%, the Green Party on 5% and others on 1%.

Compared with the 2021 Senedd constituency vote, Reform has seen a dramatic 29-point surge, while Labour has dropped 20 points and the Conservatives have fallen by 13.

The findings contrast sharply with a recent YouGov poll, which placed Plaid Cymru 14 points ahead of Reform and the Green Party in third.

What could these numbers mean for the Senedd?

A projection by More In Common based on the figures suggests Reform would take 36 seats, Plaid Cymru 26, Labour 21, the Conservatives 10, the Liberal Democrats two and the Green Party one.

Under that scenario, neither bloc would have a straightforward path to power. A Plaid Cymru and Labour partnership would fall two seats short of an overall majority, potentially paving the way for a so-called “rainbow” coalition bringing together Plaid, Labour, the Liberal Democrats and the Greens. Such a deal would see Plaid leader Rhun ap Iorwerth become Wales’ first non-Labour First Minister.

On the other side, even with Conservative backing, Reform would remain three seats short of a majority – with little realistic prospect of winning support from the Liberal Democrats or the Greens.