Plaid Cymru leads as half of Senedd seats declared

More than half the seats in the Welsh Parliament have now been filled, and the picture emerging is one of seismic change in Welsh politics.

The results so far

With 54 of 96 Senedd seats declared, Plaid Cymru leads the way on 24 seats – a gain of 11 compared with 2021. Reform UK, contesting Welsh Parliament seats in significant numbers for the first time, has taken 19 seats so far.

Labour, which has dominated Welsh politics for over a century, has won just six seats – a staggering drop of 21 from the last election. The Conservatives have four seats, down 10 from 2021, while the Greens have picked up their first ever Senedd seat. The Liberal Democrats are yet to win a seat.

What’s being projected

Polling expert Sir John Curtice is projecting that Rhun ap Iorwerth’s Plaid Cymru will finish with between 41 and 46 seats. A party needs 49 seats for an outright majority in the 96-seat Senedd.

If those projections hold, Plaid Cymru would fall short of a majority but would be comfortably the largest party – a transformation from 2021, when the party held just 13 seats.

What it means

The results represent a dramatic realignment at the Senedd. Labour’s collapse and Reform UK’s surge from zero to 19 seats so far have reshaped the Welsh political landscape, while Plaid Cymru’s gains put the party on track to lead the next Welsh Government.

Further results are expected throughout the evening.