(Image: More in Common)
Last Updated: 1 day ago
A new poll has revealed a dramatic shift in the battle for the Senedd, with Plaid Cymru surging to draw level with Reform UK just weeks before Wales goes to the polls on May 7.
The survey by More in Common, based on responses from 851 Welsh adults collected between February 15 and March 3, shows both Plaid Cymru and Reform UK sitting on 26 per cent of the vote – but the momentum is moving in very different directions.
Reform has shed five percentage points since the pollster’s previous survey on February 10, while Plaid Cymru has climbed two points to pull alongside them at the top of the field.
Labour sits in third on 20 per cent, unchanged from February, while the Green Party has seen its support double from 5 per cent to 10 per cent – now level with the Welsh Conservatives, who have fallen three points. The Liberal Democrats are on 7 per cent, up one point.
What it could mean for the Senedd
Using the D’Hondt model to project how the polling would translate into seats, More in Common estimates Reform UK and Plaid Cymru would each win 28 seats, with Labour taking 26.
That result would deliver the first non-Labour First Minister since devolution began in 1999, with Plaid Cymru expected to lead a coalition government.
The Greens could be set for a landmark moment of their own, projected to win five seats – which would see the party represented in Wales’ parliament for the first time in the Senedd’s history. The Welsh Conservatives would take seven seats and the Liberal Democrats two.
A new voting landscape
The election is considered the most significant in Welsh politics since devolution, shaped by a massive expansion of the Senedd and a complete overhaul of the voting system.
More in Common also noted that this latest poll used different question wording to its February survey. Participants were asked specifically how they plan to vote in the May 7 Senedd election, rather than how they would vote in a hypothetical election held tomorrow.
