(Image: YouGov)
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With just over two weeks until Wales goes to the polls on May 7, the latest YouGov survey for ITV Cymru Wales has placed Reform UK and Plaid Cymru on an identical 29% vote share – raising the prospect of a dramatic fight for the largest party in the next Senedd.
Projected seats
Analysis by Cardiff University suggests Reform UK would narrowly lead on seats with 37, one ahead of Plaid Cymru on 36. Welsh Labour, which has governed Wales since 1999, would be reduced to just 12 seats on a 13% vote share. The Green Party would take seven seats with 10% of the vote, the Welsh Conservatives three seats on 8%, and the Liberal Democrats a single seat on 6%.
A total of 3,069 people were asked how they intended to vote.
The coalition question
Despite the two leading parties being level on vote share, analysts say the path to forming a government favours Plaid Cymru significantly. Dr Jac Larner, from Cardiff University’s Welsh Governance Centre, said: “This poll shows another small drop in support for Plaid Cymru, putting them level with Reform UK at 29%; YouGov’s lowest Plaid estimate since November 2024. All polls come with a margin of error, and we should be cautious about reading too much into a single result.
“But taken alongside the broader polling trend, the signal is clear: the race for the largest party remains between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK, with every other party — including Labour, who were dominant in Welsh politics not two years ago — competing for a distant third place and below.
“What that framing obscures, however, is that finishing first may matter less than it appears. Whichever party leads on seats will face the same coalition arithmetic, and that arithmetic is far more favourable to Plaid than to Reform.
“Plaid has credible partners in Labour and the Greens; a combination of those parties can reach a working majority. Reform has no such options.
“The only party that has indicated any willingness to work with them is the Conservatives, who on these numbers will not come close to bridging the gap to a Senedd majority. In a proportional system, the route to government matters as much as the vote share, and on that measure, the two parties are not as evenly matched as the headline figures suggest.
“A situation where Reform UK are the largest party but find themselves in opposition will nonetheless be a novel one for Welsh voters still adjusting to the realities of proportional government formation.”
Party-by-party breakdown
Plaid Cymru: 29% – 36 seats
Reform UK: 29% – 37 seats
Welsh Labour: 13% – 12 seats
Green Party: 10% – 7 seats
Welsh Conservatives: 8% – 3 seats
Liberal Democrats: 6% – 1 seat
Shifting fortunes
The figures mark a notable shift from YouGov’s March poll, which had Plaid Cymru on course to become the largest Senedd party with a projected 43 seats. Since then, the party’s support has slipped while Reform UK has closed the gap entirely.
For the Conservatives, the picture has improved slightly – up one percentage point to 8% and projected to win three seats compared with just one last month – though leader Darren Millar would still not be re-elected under this projection. The Liberal Democrats have also risen one point to 6%, which would return only their leader Jane Dodds. The Green Party has seen a small fall in support since March.
First Minister Eluned Morgan is again projected to lose her seat, as was the case in the previous poll.
