Plaid Cymru leads poll ahead of historic Senedd election

📊 Wales could be heading for its biggest political shake-up since devolution, according to a bombshell new opinion poll that puts Plaid Cymru firmly in the lead ahead of May’s Senedd election.

The latest YouGov survey for ITV Cymru Wales and Cardiff University shows Rhun ap Iorwerth’s party has surged to 37% – a dramatic seven-point jump since September – whilst Reform UK has slipped to second place at 23%.

In an historic shift, the Green Party has polled in third place for the first time ever at 13%, whilst Labour has crashed to its lowest point since devolution began, languishing in fourth alongside the Conservatives at just 10% each.

The poll suggests Plaid could secure 45 seats when Wales goes to the ballot box on 7 May 2026 – just four short of an overall majority in the expanded 96-member Senedd.

Responding to the figures, Rhun ap Iorwerth said: “Clearly we’re taking nothing for granted, but it is a very positive poll and it shows just how ready the people of Wales are for positive change now.”

He added: “Labour’s lost its way, Reform would sell Wales out, Plaid Cymru clearly now is the party that can be the largest party forming a government here in Wales and beginning the transformation of our nation after so many years of neglect.”

Reform UK’s Laura Anne Jones dismissed her party’s slight dip, insisting momentum remains strong. She said: “What is clear from the poll is that the Conservatives and Labour are going to be completely decimated and I don’t think anyone can even try and defend that now.”

Transport Secretary Ken Skates acknowledged the difficult position for Welsh Labour, telling ITV Wales: “I’m not going to gloss over it, it’s not a good poll for us.”

With less than four months until polling day, all parties are ramping up their campaigns as Wales prepares for what could be a seismic shift in its political landscape.