Reform UK Leads Welsh Senedd Poll at 29% Support

A new poll has placed Reform UK ahead in voting intentions for next year’s Senedd election, securing 29% support with Plaid Cymru close behind on 27%. Labour finds itself in third place with just 18% – a significant drop from their current position.

The Conservatives trail on 11%, whilst both the Liberal Democrats and Greens each hold 7% support.

According to seat projections by Canendish Cymru, this would translate to Reform winning 34 seats, Plaid Cymru 30, Labour 21, Conservatives 8, Liberal Democrats 2, and Greens 1 seat under the new closed list proportional representation system.

The projections suggest First Minister Eluned Morgan would lose her seat, though former Plaid Cymru leader Adam Price – placed third on the Sir Gaerfyrddin list – would return to the Senedd.

Political analysts suggest the most likely outcome would be a Plaid Cymru-Labour arrangement, either through coalition or a confidence and supply deal, requiring Labour MSs to back Rhun ap Iorwerth as First Minister – potentially seen as preferable to a Reform-led government.

The poll, conducted by Find Out Now, surveyed 2,101 Welsh adults between June 5-16, with the sample representative across gender, age, region, Welsh language ability, and 2024 general election voting patterns.