(Image: Survation)
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With just over a week until voters head to the polls on 7 May, a new survey has placed Reform UK ahead of all other parties in Welsh voting intention for the first time in any Senedd election poll.
The Survation poll, conducted for S4C and Aberystwyth University between 17 and 23 April with 1,065 respondents aged 16 and over, gives Reform 30% of the vote share – two points clear of Plaid Cymru on 28%.
What the numbers say
If the polling translates into seats under the new 96-member Senedd system, Survation projects Reform would take 37 seats, with Plaid Cymru on 33. Labour, which has led Welsh politics for 27 years, would be reduced to just 13 seats. The Conservatives are projected to win seven, the Green Party five, and the Liberal Democrats one.
Eluned Morgan’s Labour Party sits on just 15% of the vote in this survey, with the Conservatives and Greens level on 10% each. The Liberal Democrats and other parties are each projected at 4%.
The coalition question
Under the new electoral system, 49 seats are needed for a majority – a threshold no single party looks close to reaching. Survation’s analysis suggests that the only combination currently polling above that line would be a Plaid Cymru, Labour and Green Party arrangement, which would scrape a majority by two seats.
A Plaid-Labour partnership alone would fall three seats short. Adding the Liberal Democrats to that grouping still leaves it two short. A Reform-Conservative combination would be five seats away from the threshold.
Where the support is coming from
Tom Clifford from Survation described the findings as pointing to “a watershed moment in Welsh politics,” with Reform rapidly displacing the Conservatives among right-leaning, British-identifying voters while Plaid consolidates support from Welsh-identifying, left-of-centre voters who have drifted from Labour.
Reform’s strongest support comes from male voters at 34%, those aged 65 and over at 37%, and in mid and west Wales at 34%. The party is also drawing heavily from former Conservative voters – 54% of those who backed the Tories in 2021 now say they intend to vote Reform, compared with just 37% who plan to stay with the Conservatives.
Labour faces a similar challenge retaining its base. Only 44% of its 2021 voters intend to back the party again, with 21% moving to Reform and 22% switching to Plaid Cymru. Plaid, by contrast, is holding onto 75% of its previous support and performing strongest among younger voters at 40%, Welsh speakers at 52%, north Wales voters at 31%, and those who identify strongly as Welsh at 43%.
What voters care about
Cost of living tops the list of concerns, cited by 67% of respondents. The NHS and healthcare follows at 64%, with immigration – a non-devolved issue – in third place at 39%.
The survey found 60% of people in Wales are interested in politics generally, and just over half have followed the election campaign to some degree. Engagement varies sharply by age – more than two-thirds of those aged 65 and over say they have paid significant attention, compared with fewer than half of 16 to 24-year-olds.
A historic shift?
Dr Anwen Elias from Aberystwyth University, who led the poll analysis, said the findings point to “a highly competitive political landscape,” noting that the gap between the two leading parties remains extremely tight and that the sixth seat in each constituency could come down to very small numbers of votes.
She added: “It is also striking that this poll demonstrates how support for the two parties that gained the most seats in the last Senedd elections, Labour and the Conservatives, has fallen so far behind the front-runners. If these results are replicated on May 7 they will constitute a historic change in our politics.”
