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The final MRP projection from More in Common ahead of this week’s Senedd election suggests Wales is heading for a hung parliament, with no party anywhere near the 49 seats required for a majority.
Plaid Cymru and Reform UK are projected to finish level on 34 seats apiece, despite Plaid holding a narrow lead in overall vote share. The result would leave both parties well short of being able to govern alone – and with no obvious route to forming a stable government.
Labour’s historic collapse
Perhaps the most striking projection is the scale of Labour’s decline. After leading the Welsh Government since the dawn of devolution, the party is forecast to win just 14 seats on a vote share of 16 per cent – less than half of what it achieved at the 2021 Senedd election.
More in Common’s model suggests Labour would not finish top in any of the 16 constituencies, marking what would be the party’s worst result in Wales since the extension of the franchise. The party’s traditional strongholds in the south Wales valleys have swung dramatically towards Reform UK, which leads Labour by between 16 and 19 points in seats such as Afan Ogwr Rhondda and Blaenau Gwent Caerffili Rhymni.
First Minister Eluned Morgan faces a particularly precarious position in Ceredigion Penfro, where Labour is projected to finish fourth. The model estimates her chances of winning a seat are essentially a coin toss, with a margin of just 0.2 per cent separating her from missing out entirely.
The battle at the top
Plaid Cymru leads the headline vote share on 30 per cent, with its strongest support concentrated in north and west Wales. The party commands leads of between 11 and 30 points in constituencies including Bangor Conwy Môn, Ceredigion Penfro, Gwynedd Maldwyn, and Sir Gaerfyrddin. Notably, Plaid is also projected to lead in both Cardiff seats.
Reform UK, meanwhile, is on course for what would be a remarkable breakthrough – having barely contested the 2021 election, the party is now projected to top the poll in nine of the 16 constituencies. Its strongest performances are in the valleys and Newport, with 37 per cent in Casnewydd Islwyn and 36 per cent in Afan Ogwr Rhondda.
Coalition arithmetic
The projections create a complicated picture for government formation. A Plaid-Labour coalition – the most conventional progressive arrangement – would yield just 48 seats, one short of a majority. That would force either a minority government or a three-party arrangement bringing in the Green Party, which is projected to win five seats and enter the Senedd for the first time.
Rhun ap Iorwerth has previously indicated he would prefer to lead a minority government, but Reform could make a similar claim to govern – particularly if bolstered by the Conservatives, who are projected to win nine seats. A Reform-Conservative arrangement would produce 43 seats, still six short of a majority.
Razor-thin margins
The new electoral system means many seats will be decided by tiny margins. Under the d’Hondt formula used to allocate seats, one in six could be settled by less than 2.5 per cent of the vote, with the sixth seat in one constituency potentially decided by as little as 0.06 per cent.
These marginal seats are particularly significant for Plaid Cymru. If the tightest contests break in the party’s favour, it could finish with as many as 40 seats. A swing the other way could see them fall to 31.
The Conservatives and Greens
The Conservatives are projected to finish fourth with nine seats on a vote share of 12 per cent – roughly half their 2021 result and their lowest ever in a Senedd election. Their strongest showings are in Sir Fynwy Torfaen and Clwyd, though Reform outpolls them even in those traditional strongholds.
The Green Party is set to make history with five seats on nine per cent of the vote – more than double their previous best. Their support is concentrated in Cardiff, where they are projected to win 19 per cent in Caerdydd Penarth and 15 per cent in Caerdydd Ffynnon Taf.
The Liberal Democrats are projected to win no seats.
What the pollsters say
Luke Tryl, executive director of More in Common UK, said: “With less than a week to go, the race has tightened. Plaid Cymru now leads on vote share, but in terms of seats it all looks set to come down to the 6th seat in each constituency which will likely be decided by handfuls of votes.
“As we saw ahead of the Caerphilly by-election, Labour is being squeezed in the final days as voters rally behind Plaid Cymru as the progressive alternative to Reform. The party looks set to fall into the teens – Labour’s worst result in Wales since the extension of the franchise. After nearly three decades leading the Senedd, Labour could fail to top the poll in any constituency and be pushed into third place.
“For Reform, this would represent an extraordinary breakthrough – going from barely contesting the last Senedd election to being in contention for the highest number of seats.
“Plaid Cymru is carrying the change mantle, and seems to be gaining momentum as we reach the finish line. But even Rhun ap Iorwerth will not be celebrating yet: the outcome is likely to require complex coalition or confidence and supply negotiations.
“We head into the final days on a knife edge, and no clear picture of what the next Welsh government will look like.”
