Last Updated: 8 minutes ago
A major new poll has projected Plaid Cymru could sweep to power in the Senedd election on May 7, taking 43 of the 96 available seats – leaving leader Rhun ap Iorwerth just six short of an outright majority.
The YouGov survey, carried out for ITV Wales and Cardiff University and released on Tuesday, March 24, puts Plaid on 33% of the vote, with Reform UK in second place on 27%. Labour trails in third on just 13%, with the Greens close behind on 12%.
Cardiff University’s analysis suggests those figures would deliver the following seat projections: Plaid Cymru 43, Reform UK 30, Welsh Labour 13, the Green Party 10, the Conservatives one, and the Liberal Democrats none.
First Minister projected to lose her seat
The findings spell particularly grim reading for Welsh Labour leader Eluned Morgan. The projections suggest her party would fail to elect anyone in four constituencies – including Ceredigion Penfro, where the First Minister herself has chosen to stand.
It marks a dramatic fall for a party that commanded more than 40% support in equivalent polls as recently as May 2023. That figure slumped to 10% by January this year, with only a marginal recovery since.
Reform’s rapid rise
Reform UK, which has never stood in a national election in Wales, is projected to take 30 seats – a remarkable result for a party whose only current Senedd presence comes from two members who defected from the Conservatives.
The Tories themselves face near-total wipeout, with just one projected seat. Group leader Darren Millar would be the sole surviving Conservative in the Senedd. The Liberal Democrats fare no better – the poll suggests they would fail to return their only current MS, Jane Dodds, with just 5% of the vote.
What the experts say
Dr Jac Larner, from Cardiff University’s Welsh Governance Centre, said: “This poll points to a narrowing in the race for largest party between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK since the last ITV Cymru poll, but adds further evidence that the contest to form the next government is firmly between these two parties.
“Plaid Cymru remain in the strongest position — not only are they projected to be the largest party, but if short of a majority they have more options for coalition partners. Reform faces far greater constraints, yet there should be no mistake: winning a third of seats would represent a remarkable result.”
He added: “The poll also suggests that the race for third place is now firmly between Labour and the Greens. Labour’s position has improved marginally since January, supported by improving underlying evaluations of UK government performance and a modest recovery in ratings for Keir Starmer from their historic January low.
“The Greens will be encouraged that they have maintained a strong position in Wales, building on their success in England. Notably, their rise does not appear to have come at Plaid Cymru’s expense, suggesting the two parties are drawing support from largely separate pools of voters.”
Dr Larner also noted the results pointed “clearly to a near-supermajority for progressive parties in the Senedd.”
Labour’s response
A Welsh Labour source said: “We’re getting out on the doorstep and what we’re hearing isn’t what’s reflected in these polls. We’ve been up front about the work we need to do and the need to regain people’s faith, but our positive message is getting out there – £4bn for new hospitals, tackling the cost of living and supporting families across Wales.
“We have a realistic, deliverable plan, which is more than other parties can say.”
The May 7 election will be the first fought under a new electoral system with redrawn constituency boundaries, and the first to elect 96 rather than 60 Senedd members. Not all parties have yet published their candidate lists or manifestos.
