Shock Poll: Labour Third in Caerphilly By-Election Race

📊 A new poll has revealed stunning results ahead of next week’s Caerphilly by-election, showing Labour could fall to a distant third place in one of their traditional heartlands.

The poll of 501 people shows Reform UK leading with 42% of the vote, Plaid Cymru on 38%, and Labour trailing on just 12% – a potential drop of more than 30 percentage points.

The by-election takes place on 23 October in a seat that has only ever been held by Labour in both Westminster and the Senedd.

The poll, conducted by Survation for public affairs agency Camlas, reveals:

🔹 Reform UK leads with strong support among older voters (49% among 55+) 🔹 Reform is attracting 26% of 2021 Labour voters, 18% of 2021 Plaid voters, and 70% of 2021 Conservative voters 🔹 Plaid Cymru dominates among younger voters (50% among 18-34s) 🔹 Only one in three (33%) of Labour’s 2021 voters remain loyal, with 31% switching to Plaid and 26% to Reform

Rhodri ab Owen, managing director of Camlas Public Affairs, said: “All eyes have been on Caerphilly, as the by-election campaign is seen as a reflection of what is to come when Welsh voters head to the polls in 2026. The battle lines of Welsh politics have been redrawn. A dramatic generational shift is exhibited to be driving the future of Welsh politics as Reform and Plaid’s bases are concentrated in older and younger voter clusters respectively. Welsh Labour’s electoral dominance is potentially coming to an end with their dramatic 34 point drop in the polls and their support divided between Reform and Plaid Cymru.”

Damian Lyons Lowe, chief executive of Survation, said: “Welsh politics is on the cusp of an unprecedented transformation. The Labour and Conservative parties previously took a combined 63% of Caerphilly’s Senedd vote in 2021, this polling indicates this may have plummeted to just 16% as both have seen an extreme fragmentation of their vote to both Reform and Plaid. While Labour’s one hundred year long unbeaten record in Caerphilly’s Senedd and Westminster elections is highly likely to be coming to an end, this type of result replicated nationally will also see the end of over 20 years of Labour Welsh Government dominance, with Reform or Plaid the likely party of power in 2026.”

A Plaid Cymru spokesperson said: “This poll confirms that the by-election is a two-horse race between Reform and Plaid Cymru. There is only one choice for those who want to defeat the ex-Tories and their politics of division – that choice is a vote for Plaid Cymru’s excellent candidate Lindsay Whittle. Lindsay has dedicated his whole life to serving the communities of Caerphilly. He is the only credible option for voters who want a principled, passionate and hard-working Senedd member and we urge everyone who wants to beat Reform to back him next Thursday.”