
Last Updated: October 15, 2025
Former First Minister Mark Drakeford has urged voters in the upcoming Caerphilly by-election to consider the wider implications of their vote for the whole of Wales.
The by-election takes place on October 23 following the death of Labour’s Hefin David in August. If Labour loses the seat – which only Labour has ever held in Westminster and the Senedd – it will make passing the Welsh Government’s budget significantly harder.
Labour currently holds 30 seats and has relied on support from other parties to pass budgets. Without the Caerphilly seat, they would need a second vote to get the budget through. Wales’ finance minister has admitted losing the seat would complicate matters.
The stakes are high – if no budget passes before the start of the financial year, funding available to the Welsh Government drops to 75%, which Mr Drakeford has warned could be “catastrophic” for Wales, directly affecting services and councils across the country.
Speaking to WalesOnline, the Cardiff West MS said: “My message to people in Caerphilly, insofar as the budget is concerned, is that their vote matters not simply in Caerphilly but to Wales as a whole. If Labour retains the seat of Caerphilly that opens up a path to passing the budget that is easier than the path is without them so when they’re casting their votes I hope they will be thinking about not simply about their own locality, which will be very important to them, but the fact that their decision will matter far more widely than in the constituency of Caerphilly itself.” 📊
The WLGA has warned that the proposed budget would leave councils with a £405m shortfall – equivalent to a 20% council tax rise or 13,000 public sector job losses.
The final budget vote is scheduled for January.

