Mark Drakeford (Image: PA Images / Alamy)
Last Updated: 1 hour ago
Wales is heading towards a Senedd election on 7 May with polls suggesting a tight contest between Reform UK and Plaid Cymru for the largest share of seats – but former first minister Mark Drakeford has made clear that winning the most seats would not be enough for Reform to lead the next Welsh government.
Speaking to BBC Wales on Wednesday as the Senedd held its final session before the 7 May election, Drakeford said he was confident left-leaning parties would combine their numbers to prevent a Reform nominee from being endorsed as first minister.
How the first minister vote works
Under Senedd rules, any party can put forward a candidate for first minister after the election. To succeed, that candidate must win a majority of the total votes cast by members.
Drakeford argued this process would prove an insurmountable barrier for Reform, telling the Politics Wales programme: “I don’t believe for a moment that a Reform nominee would be endorsed by the Senedd because I think that next Senedd will have three-quarters or two-thirds of its members who do not share the views of that party.
“So even if they are the largest party – and I don’t think they will be – but even if they were, they could put forward their nominee and that nominee will not succeed.”
He said the majority of Welsh voters would back left-leaning parties and described the “political challenge” as ensuring those parties cooperated to deliver a “stable and progressive government”.
Pressed on whether critics would accuse left-wing parties of ganging up against Reform, Drakeford responded: “The left-wing parties… would have more seats and more votes between them and they will be casting those votes to reflect the views of their electorate.”
Reform hits back
Reform UK’s Welsh leader Dan Thomas accused his political opponents of trying to shut voters out of the democratic process.
“The establishment parties will do absolutely anything they can to stop real people from having a seat at the table and having their voices heard,” Thomas said.
“This May, it’s time to send them a message that hardworking Welsh men and women will no longer be ignored.”
Drakeford’s legacy and Labour’s challenge
Drakeford’s interview marked the end of a Senedd career spanning 15 years and a far longer involvement in Welsh devolution stretching back 27 years. He first shaped the direction of Welsh politics as a senior adviser to former first minister Rhodri Morgan, before entering the then-National Assembly in 2011. He went on to hold several of the most senior roles in Welsh government, serving as first minister from 2018 to 2024 and steering Wales through the Covid pandemic.
Yet he departs with Welsh Labour facing serious difficulties. The most recent YouGov poll for ITV Cymru Wales and Cardiff University placed the party third on 13%, only narrowly ahead of the Greens on 12%.
Asked what lay behind those figures, Drakeford said: “There’s no doubt that every time you win an election the hill gets steeper the next time.
“‘Time for a change’ is a very potent slogan in politics and the longer you are in government the more potent that slogan becomes.
“There is a feeling out there, after those long years of austerity, that the system isn’t working for people, and then people lose faith in the ways of doing things that they had supported in the past.”
On whether he bore personal responsibility for Labour’s standing, he added: “You don’t do these jobs without being willing to shoulder that responsibility.
“I went into the last election on the basis of an opinion poll that said it was going to be Labour’s worst-ever result and in the end, only six weeks later, it was our best-ever result.”
